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Presidents, Politics, and Predictions

It's not often that our President makes me rotfl these days, but occasionally he gets off a good one.

Monday, as you may have heard, a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran was released (PDF), that stated with "high confidence" that Iran halted its quest for nuclear weapons in 2003. You'd think that would leave those who were warning us about World War III as recently as a month ago with egg on their face, but Bush was quick to assure us otherwise. "I believed before the NIE that Iran was dangerous," he said, "and I believe after the NIE that Iran is dangerous."

Ha! Yes, don't you worry your pretty little self, America--this administration will continue to forge ahead on whatever course of action they are currently on, even in the face of facts.

I love they way Bush seems to genuinely believe we are less concerned about whether whether a sworn enemy of the United States has Teh Newk, and more about whether he has ever in his life changed his mind about anything ever forever. Like, if he and and family were out at T.G.I.Friday's and he told Laura he was going to get the Parmesan-Crusted Sicilian Quesadilla, but then when the waiter came he actually ordered a Jack Daniel's Cheesy Bacon Burger, the stock market would crash and two-thirds of the US population would immediately become furries.

So, for those of you seized by anxiety right now, let me reiterate:

Of course, notice how he craftily fails to mention what he believed at the exact moment the NIE was released. He's always got a out, that guy.

Anyway, it amused me that Bush exhaled the carbon dioxide necessary to say that he wasn't going to change his policy. My goodness, M. Night Shyamalan himself couldn't have written a more surprising twist.

So, let's see. What else is political news right now. Ummm .. oh yeah!


This guy is going to be our next president:

Yes, I'm calling it. You heard it here first.

More people are paying attention as we approach the primaries, which is translating into more people with Grave Misgivings about another Clinton term. Obama, meanwhile, is picking up steam.

I say he wins by a significant (if not sizable) margin in Iowa, and people start thinking that he's the one with "electablity." Wins NH by a significant (if not sizable) margin as well, and then it's snowball city.

I'm still banking on Giuliani for the GOP, despite the scandals--after all, he's got FOX in his corner. The contrast between he and Obama is startling in the debates, like the choice between a cupcake and a Brussels sprout. Rudy's scandals continue to dog him up to the general election, and many social conservatives refuse to pull the lever for him (plus, the urgency to do so is gone, since his loss won't result in That Woman winding up in the White House).

Obama takes it in November 2008 ... oh, let's say 292 to 246.

My record of success on these kind of predictions is approximately 0 for Every Prediction I've Ever Made, but that won't stop me from being totally 100% right this time, just you wait.

Note: If Obama actually wins 292 to 246, everyone who comments on this post wins a beer.
Posted on December 05, 2007 to Politics


You mean a prize other than Obama in the Oval Office?

Posted by: Country Mouse on December 5, 2007 10:21 PM

I hope you are right. And not just for the prize. Really. My money is (literally) on Obama, too. Then again, I gave a sizeable chunk to Dean the last time 'round, when I still lived in Iowa. I was a bit more relevant then. Still, Barack can buy replacements for all the 'O' keys the W administration will pop off the White House keyboards. Unoriginal twits.

Posted by: Danny on December 5, 2007 10:34 PM

Country Mouse, you beat me to it.

Give me Obama in the white house, and, honestly, I'm not sure I need anything else.

Call me silly, but I want a rookie in the white house. I want someone who *has* to learn on the job because that's how I am.

Sure, I think he's qualified, but part of the reason I think he's qualified is because he isn't entirely qualified. And that makes me happy.

Posted by: John on December 5, 2007 10:41 PM

"Note: If Obama actually wins 285 to 280, everyone who comments on this post wins a beer."

Given the typo, that seems especially unlikely. But on the slight chance that the nation decides to adopt a few more Reps. before then and it does turn out that way, I'll take your beer. ;)

Also, doubt he'll be taking it in '07.

Posted by: Brennan on December 5, 2007 10:54 PM

Whew, you've got a few typos in this post. You must be really distressed about Bush and Iran. Fear not, Iraq has WMD and we finished that war in 6 days or 6 weeks, I doubt if it was even 6 months. Iran, OTOH, does not have nukes, so we can take care of them and be done in half that time!

You know how toy commercials always point out "batteries not included?" Maybe this administration should have to have "logic not included" in the fine print any time they are on TV or in a newspaper.

Posted by: Ian Clifton on December 5, 2007 11:04 PM

I'm with Country Mouse. Obama AND a beer? 2008 is going to be awesome.

Posted by: mavis on December 5, 2007 11:12 PM

obama, please.
beer, please.

Posted by: K on December 5, 2007 11:38 PM

Not to be all typo-snooty, but I just can't pass this one up: pretty sure you're not going to be buying any beers, what with November 2007 having already passed.

That said, he's who I've been rooting for from the start. May you please be right.

Posted by: Matthew Frederick on December 5, 2007 11:40 PM

Free Beer!

Posted by: Lao on December 6, 2007 12:41 AM

Yeah, but the economy will suck so bad by November, the candidates will be playing to lose. Rudy will be bragging about his scandals, and swearing to nuke a small country if elected. Obama will be the new Jimmy Carter, and Democrats will be blamed for the second Great Depression.

I really think Hillary deserves to preside over a pointless war or two and a depression. It would be suitable punishment for hubris.

Posted by: Michael on December 6, 2007 12:45 AM

Free Beer too! (you pay for shipping to Paris France, right?)

Posted by: Atma on December 6, 2007 1:20 AM

And will you come and have the beer with me here in Berlin?

Posted by: rrho on December 6, 2007 1:22 AM

I do hope you are right this time.
And I'll take a hard cider if that's ok.

Posted by: Jennifer on December 6, 2007 3:08 AM

I don't even like beer, but what the hey. Make that^ two hard ciders, please.

Posted by: srah on December 6, 2007 4:14 AM

Beer me.

Posted by: beer slut on December 6, 2007 4:17 AM

Hmm, what Micheal says is intriguing. Jimmy Carter is a really nice guy though!

I'm not sure Obama has the experience to make it through 1 term with enough success to make it a 2 term shindig, but considering the choices this year I hope you're right, Yeti.

Also, anything but Natty Light, please. :-)

Posted by: effika on December 6, 2007 4:58 AM

I'll have a beer, too. Preferably something I can't see through. Cheers.

Posted by: Charles on December 6, 2007 5:24 AM

Hey, I'm just here for the beer.

Posted by: Davey on December 6, 2007 5:29 AM

Beer me.

Posted by: Dan McCulley on December 6, 2007 5:49 AM

Given the current horrifyingly bad field of candidates to lead the US, I have to say that Obama is the least bad of the group. I hope he wins, but only because nearly all the rest of the presidential contenders are markedly worse.

Make mine a Black Butte or an Obsidian Stout, please.

Posted by: Eric on December 6, 2007 6:01 AM

Beer me an Obama.

Posted by: Scottie on December 6, 2007 6:12 AM

Since the subject of typos was broached, I feel the need to weigh in on the subject (as a loyal fan): there are too many typos in your posts. You have a rarity -- a blog that people actually read. You should give your posts the once-over.

I realize I won't be getting my beer now, and I don't blame you.

Posted by: Squidocto on December 6, 2007 6:16 AM

Having once been a republican, the fact that the race for the republican nomination is currently between two Kings of Asshat-ery like Giuliani and Romney leaves me feeling cold and violated, but still happily no longer affiliated with that party. I sincerely hope that you're right about Obama, and not just for the beer thing, either.

Posted by: You can call me, 'Sir' on December 6, 2007 6:17 AM

-Scrolls down ignoring everything else


Posted by: Mark on December 6, 2007 6:34 AM

I've been listening to the Audacity of Hope on CD and I really like him as well. He's got my vote!

Posted by: kara on December 6, 2007 6:43 AM

Just in case.

Posted by: J. Matt on December 6, 2007 6:46 AM

um, i'm with srah on this...yay hard cider booo beer.

or can we just jump right into the vodka martinis, very dirty with tons o'olives?

i can't believe i'm thinking of martinis this early in the morning here in the bible belt. i'm gonna burn in hellfire!

Posted by: b on December 6, 2007 7:09 AM

Does the free beer include shipping & handling? Or do we have to come pick it up? Is it a domestic beer or an import?

Posted by: Tal on December 6, 2007 7:09 AM

You believed before the election that Obama would be elected, and you believed after the election that Obama would be elected.


Posted by: Bay on December 6, 2007 7:09 AM

I don't even like beer - but I'll gladly learn to love it if/when Obama wins. Or how about I just buy you a glass of wine instead. Hell, a bottle. And one for my buddy Obama too!

Posted by: widdershins on December 6, 2007 7:15 AM

Free beer! Sweet! Is the Brew Gratis program going to be subsidized by defective yeti or Obama for President?

Posted by: Tom on December 6, 2007 7:16 AM

There is only one candidate who truly advocates a humble foreign policy... Ron Paul. He is going to win the Republican nomination, and absolutely crush the Democratic nominee.

Posted by: Bryan Rankin on December 6, 2007 7:25 AM

Frankly, I'm an Edwards guy. But if Obama is standing on the steps of the Capitol getting sworn in January 2009, I promise I'll be very, very happy.

And maybe a little buzzed from my beer.

Not incidentally, I'm going with Romney for the GOP nomination. I know, the Mormon thing. But the scandals and liberal positions are too large a cross for Giuliani to bear.

Posted by: Ben on December 6, 2007 7:28 AM

I agree with the "rookie in the White House" concept mainly because the really bad folks messing everything up are always behind the scenes and well hidden. It's the Chief of Staff and the White House Counsel and various other "advisors" that scare me more than any president.

So I would be less opposed to Sen Clinton if she promised that her appointed-without-confirmation staff would not include anyone who worked for her husband in any capacity. (I'm perfectly OK with president's appointing cabinet members and directors from previous administrations as long as they have to go through a rigorous confirmation process. Ha! Rigorous! I make myself laugh.)

I doubt Bush would have been anywhere near as bad if his personal staff hadn't come from the Nixon aministration or been involved in Iran Contra (and who knows how many would have been implicated had the BCCI investigation been allowed to continue). Of course, I also doubt that he would have been annointed as the candidate without the corruptocrats backing.

I don't know if this gets me a beer, but I don't really like beer...I can has hard cider?

Posted by: Dorothy on December 6, 2007 7:35 AM

Are we talking about good beer?

Posted by: ack on December 6, 2007 7:37 AM

(1) Awesome how free beer - even free VIRTUAL beer can still command so much attention;
(2) I would prefer a Canadian beer, if that's okay;
(3) People, people, people: Matthew is a uniter, not a divider. Let us not be distracted by the politics of division - let those who do not like beer accept it but sell it on the futures market and exchange the currency so earned for a hard cider or other beverage if they so desire.

Posted by: Junior on December 6, 2007 7:38 AM

I'll make you a better. If Obama wins, cart yourself down to SF to see a long time fan and I'll buy the second round.

But I'll enjoy that first free beer.

Posted by: Shabbir on December 6, 2007 7:38 AM

Mmmm, beer.

This is what's going to keep me going through the long election season.

Posted by: Denise on December 6, 2007 7:49 AM

Regarding Obama, the little to no experience thing doesn't really bother me either. I just think about the current administration and all its 'experience' and figure it doesn't really matter how much you know going in--you can still eff things up. Take Rummy--he was very experienced but blinded by an ideology that was so totally wrong that we're still trying to fix what he broke in Iraq. And I agree with you on Hillary, I don't like dynasties much and I'm really sick of Clintons and Bushes.

So, Obama all the way! Plus, BEER!

Posted by: birdgal on December 6, 2007 7:55 AM

Samuel Smith's Taddy Porter, please.

Posted by: Matthew on December 6, 2007 7:57 AM

Beer for me too! Just because Im curious how you will ship it to Europe :-)

Posted by: peer on December 6, 2007 7:58 AM

As a New Hampshire resident, I, for one, am excited for the chance to vote for Obama. What sort of beer are you offering?

Posted by: Hoosac on December 6, 2007 8:02 AM

Well, I'd be a fool to pass up the chance for a free beer.

Ack, beggars can't be choosers.

Posted by: sharper on December 6, 2007 8:04 AM

i like them odds.

though i don't think rudy will be the GOP pick.

Posted by: Nic on December 6, 2007 8:10 AM

Hi Matthew,

Sorry, but I didn't hear it here first. I heard it on my blog over a year ago:


Posted by: Mike on December 6, 2007 8:14 AM

In an effort to clear the way for you, I'm going to go out on a limb and say it'll actually be Edwards in the White House. Since I believe my prediction record to be far more woeful than your own, I think this will help you out.

But as others have pointed out, if any one of the bozos the Republicans are offering end up in the White House, *that's* when we'll need the beer.

Posted by: Dug on December 6, 2007 8:28 AM

I really hope you're right. Obama in the White House is the best present we can get.

Posted by: Mike on December 6, 2007 8:47 AM

After listening to NPR's democratic debate the other day, I think it's important that you clarify that it will NOT be a beer made in China. Screw it, I'll take a Tsingtao.

Posted by: Edward on December 6, 2007 9:04 AM

Two questions:

1. Do I need to come to Seattle to get said beer? If so, what kind of detergent do you use on the sheets in your guest bedroom? I am allergic to Tide.

2. Are racist, sexist, white men still allowed inside the polling places? I'm afraid they might show up to vote if there isn't a good football game on.

Obama would be a welcome change of pace. Perhaps he should offer a free beer to all if elected.

Posted by: Jessie Birks on December 6, 2007 9:04 AM

1. Beer me!
2. Nitpick: President Bush exhales carbon *dioxide*.
3. Did I mention beer me?

Posted by: Craig on December 6, 2007 9:14 AM

I like Clinton, but I'll take Obama over the Republican alternative any day.

Posted by: Megan on December 6, 2007 9:21 AM

Beer post!

Posted by: Mac on December 6, 2007 9:29 AM

I need Obama to win. I need it for life.

Also? I need beer.

Posted by: Danielle on December 6, 2007 9:44 AM


Posted by: Dan Someone on December 6, 2007 9:55 AM

A few days ago, we were talking politics at the dinner table. As the pros/cons of Clinton and Obama were being discussed, I admitted that I was a wee bit worried that Obama lacked enough experience. The newcomer at the table, my 22-year-old daughter's boyfriend, spoke up: "Would you have voted for JFK?" First, points for sticking up for Obama; second, for using a tense that demonstrates he knows I'm not old enough to have voted for JFK. Then the boyfriend fixed a broken computer that had been lounging around the house for months unused.

I can has son-in-law, please?


Posted by: Robin on December 6, 2007 10:04 AM

It's funny that there is so much focus on your typos in the comments. Nobody seems to suspect that the 2007 gaffe was strategy to ensure you don't have to provide free beer, or to ensure your perfect record for election predictions doesn't change.

Posted by: Jason on December 6, 2007 10:05 AM

You do know that the locals will be hunting you down for an actual beer, right?

Incidentally, do you suppose there's some kind of law we can pass telling Bush that we're not buying him any more Intelligence reports until he uses the ones we already bought him? What does he think we are, made of money? Why, when we were his age emotionally, we had to get paper routes to pay for OUR NIE reports, dagnabbit!

Posted by: akeeyu on December 6, 2007 10:08 AM

It has to be a cider for me too. Not because I don't like beer, but I'm allergic.

I'd love for you to be right. I think he might be our president in 2016.

Posted by: janaya on December 6, 2007 10:12 AM

Oh please be right. But if you're not right, that's when I'll need a free beer.

Posted by: sprizee on December 6, 2007 10:14 AM

This is great...cuz if Obama does win I'll need beer...and lots of it.

Given the field of candidates from both parties I'm praying our new overlords from planet Blargon 7 arrive between now and Nov 2008 to show us the way.

We'll make great pets.

And if that doesn't happen I'm urging everyone to cast a vote for a write in candidate I like to call "Magic 8 Ball".

Posted by: Ryan on December 6, 2007 10:20 AM

I'd actually like to see Richardson pick it up, but he's sorta been hampered by that whole late-declaration, not-being-anywhere-except-Iowa thing. That doesn't mean I don't want in on free beer.

Posted by: Rick on December 6, 2007 10:27 AM

I vote for beer.

Posted by: Greg on December 6, 2007 10:28 AM

Matt, I feel about your prediction the way I feel about Coruscant. I don't believe that the planet actually exists, but I like the idea of it a lot.

Posted by: Greg on December 6, 2007 10:29 AM

I'll take that beer, even though I don't drink!

Posted by: Jake on December 6, 2007 10:34 AM

I had no idea there were so many cider fans around. Yay us. We should find out where Obama stands on the cider vs beer issue.

Posted by: srah on December 6, 2007 10:35 AM

great comment-bait - but you can't beat the pot odds, so I'm in.

Posted by: mincus on December 6, 2007 10:51 AM

Everything that you say would be perfectly valid if it weren't for the fact that the American people no longer actually decide who gets to be president. The system has been compromised and there is no going back to the "power of the people" bit anytime soon.

And count me out on the beer if you somehow are right--I'm not old enough to drink yet.

Posted by: julie on December 6, 2007 10:51 AM

I'm here for the beer. Good luck on your predictions!

Posted by: Thom on December 6, 2007 10:52 AM

Beer Me!

Posted by: Crash on December 6, 2007 11:05 AM

Here for the beer... and Obama...

I know this is cliche, but "long time reader, first time poster" actually...

Posted by: Will on December 6, 2007 11:06 AM

Obama! Obrewski!

Posted by: rmg on December 6, 2007 11:20 AM

i am totally here for beer. i am the juggernaut, bitch.

Posted by: tom on December 6, 2007 11:21 AM

If you're right, I'm going to need more than one.

Posted by: Anon on December 6, 2007 11:27 AM

I hope you're right. Obama is smart, thoughtful and engaged. Also hot. But I'd take any Democrat at this point. I still think they can lose! Don't underestimate them!

As for the GOP, you'd better hope they don't nominate Huckabee.

Aren't I merry today. Can I have my beer with a morphine chaser?

Posted by: Yatima on December 6, 2007 11:30 AM

two days ago, I would have called it Romney or Huckabee in the general, maybe both on the ticket, but now? Thompson/Cheney, baby: the barely alive and the undead . . . . what a dream team.

Who is Gore going to back? Obama? Edwards?

Posted by: paul on December 6, 2007 11:55 AM

I just want the beer.

Posted by: Alyce on December 6, 2007 11:55 AM

I can haz magahreeta, pls? kthxbye

After Cali managed to vote in der gubernator, I firmly believe anything is possible on election day when the masses are feeling enough enragement, so Obama is entirely possible. Would love to see it.

Posted by: HDC on December 6, 2007 12:04 PM

I'm just here for the beer.

Posted by: Beth on December 6, 2007 12:27 PM

I have serious doubts about the accuracy of your projection. (I don't see America voting for a black man. Check out the Bradley effect page at Wikipedia.)

With that said, I wouldn't mind Obama winning, and I wouldn't mind a free beer.

Posted by: Boofus McGoofus on December 6, 2007 12:31 PM

I don't drink.

Posted by: j2 on December 6, 2007 12:41 PM

I'm all for a free beer, and I certainly like to see Obama in office. I do have one little problem that came up recently, however, and that's Obama's stance on drug policy in America. Specifically, he feels that it is completely great and should not be changed at all. I guess you can see what's wrong with this. If I could rationalize voting for Kucinich, I would. C'est la vie.

Posted by: Another Matt on December 6, 2007 12:50 PM

Beer me!

(long time reader, first time poster - the beer will get me every time :)

Posted by: Dee on December 6, 2007 12:52 PM

Matthew, you are sort of a thermometer for me. Since you don't often make political posts, when something seems important/funny enough for you to post about, I can be sure that whatever it is has got people's attention. Like Stumpy McBush talking about the piece of rope that is his DangerOMeter.

I feel that Obama is just a shade too naive to be President. My favorite is Edwards. But any of the top 5 Democrats winning next November would be cause for celebration, in my book.

Posted by: Doctor Jay on December 6, 2007 12:53 PM

I want my beer given to me at Peter's game night, and I'd be damned happy drinking it, let me tell you.

Posted by: Nathan on December 6, 2007 12:55 PM

Not sure I agree with your police work on Obama, but willing to collect on the beer.

Plus: "I am the juggernaut, bitch!" requires a comment.

Posted by: Carny Asada on December 6, 2007 12:57 PM

I would be quite satisfied with that prediction coming true.

Especially if you follow through on the beer thing.

Posted by: Andrew on December 6, 2007 1:00 PM


Posted by: poast on December 6, 2007 1:06 PM

I'm here for the bear.


Oh, beer. Well, that's good too.

Posted by: Pat J on December 6, 2007 1:12 PM

Obama wins, you can buy me a beer.
Clinton wins, I'll buy you a martini.

You know, I always thought a great name for a rock band would be "Free Beer"...

Posted by: Diane on December 6, 2007 1:25 PM

I've never wanted a beer so badly in my life-- and I'm a drunk.

Posted by: Eamon on December 6, 2007 1:35 PM

Oh great-- the democrats get into the Executive office, and suddenly The Age of Entitlements comes alive again, starting with beer!

I'm glad to see the NIE indicates that Iran isn't pursuing an active weapons program. All that's left is Iran's continuing pursuit of Uranium Enrichment and Ballistic Missile technologies, two programs that're surely unrelated and won't ever come in to play when Iran does get around to building or buying nukes, not least from its fellow Axis of Paper Tigers nation, North Korea.

It's just a harmless Persian country figureheaded by an America-hating extremist, terrorist supporter (Hamas and Hezbollah might not exist without the Iranian subsidy) and holocaust denier, but of course he's just a front-man for a harmless theocracy that's all in favor of freedoms and liberties for all mankind. Yup, nothing to worry about-- time to drop the whole Iran thing.

Posted by: LAN3 on December 6, 2007 1:37 PM

I honestly want you to be right, and I don't even live in your country

(but if you are right and I can get to your country I'll take you up on your beer)

(but it better not be Budweiser, or Foster's - that swill we send to the US because no-one will drink it here.)

(oh yeah, from Australia)

Posted by: Iain on December 6, 2007 1:48 PM

Totally commenting for the beer!

Posted by: Kathi on December 6, 2007 2:27 PM

Wow, beer sure is a great incentive to post.

I'm underage, but you can still buy me a beer. We'll go to Mexico and drink it.

Posted by: Hans on December 6, 2007 3:32 PM

If you are right, I will fly to Seattle to drink it with you.

Posted by: Sfida on December 6, 2007 3:37 PM

I think Obama will do it, but I'm really only commenting for free beer.

Posted by: Chuck on December 6, 2007 4:26 PM

Beer ME! I'm already in Seattle so I can save you the postage. Just tell me when and where.

Posted by: Jack on December 6, 2007 4:54 PM

I'm an Edwards supporter, too. But if the ballot I'm staring at in 11 months has Obama's name on it, we will all be one vote closer to FREE AS IN BEER, because Mr. Audacity is a close second choice for me.

And since we seem to be making requests, I'll have a Bishop's Tipple or a Bishop's Finger.

Posted by: Eddie on December 6, 2007 5:07 PM

Beer! I'm in Seattle, too, so I can make it easy.

Posted by: Megan on December 6, 2007 5:32 PM

Another Seattlite* here. Come to drinking liberally, I never say no to free beer.

*Seattletonian? I dunno,I'm not from here originally. If somebody is from Seattle and never moves are they a geosynchronous Seattlite?

Posted by: MikeJ on December 6, 2007 6:06 PM

Here's to Obama's drunken mandate.

Posted by: braine on December 6, 2007 6:45 PM

With all this talk of beer, I'm thinking of writing a polka based on the comments to this post:

(Sung to the tune of "Roll Out the Barrel")
O-obam, o-obam, there's gonna be some drama ...

Vote out the Bushies, we'll have some primary fun ...

(Polka lyrics are supposed to be pretty lame).

Oh, and while you're going for outsiders with integrity, why not go all the way and vote for Kucinich?

Posted by: gruve on December 6, 2007 6:51 PM

MLewinsky running for president?

Posted by: EMaglott on December 6, 2007 7:28 PM

For those underage readers and those who don't like beer there is always Thomas Kemper root BEER. Yumm, yumm

Posted by: Yeti Mom on December 6, 2007 7:46 PM


Posted by: lu on December 6, 2007 8:10 PM

Matt, you best be watching out, there appear to be many Seattle residents lining up to take you up on your offer. And I expect something better than PBR!

Posted by: Chelsea on December 6, 2007 8:12 PM

I'm in AA, so I'll take a root beer. Thanks!

Posted by: Toni on December 6, 2007 8:19 PM

Pretty soon, you're going to have to start rooting against Obama, just so you don't have to spend a grand on beer.

Posted by: Russell on December 6, 2007 8:43 PM

draft Anchor Steam, please!

Posted by: DrBeeper on December 6, 2007 9:12 PM

Ooooh! I'll take a beer. I'll use it to begin the big celebration when the long national nightmare of the Bush administration is over.

Posted by: JBLIII on December 6, 2007 10:20 PM

Oh, beer . . . is there anything you can't do?

Posted by: pjcamp on December 6, 2007 10:27 PM

Obama for free beer

Posted by: latria on December 6, 2007 11:26 PM

*like obama

*like beer

*this post is win win

Posted by: candace on December 7, 2007 1:37 AM

I hope I get a beer out of you. Because I like beer, but also because I want Obama. I don't want any more of the Clinton/Bush rule.

Posted by: KurtRoedeger on December 7, 2007 3:20 AM

I suspect with the amount of comments in this thread that if Obama even looks like winning we'll find Matthew in a book depository with a sniper rifle.

Posted by: pollo on December 7, 2007 5:14 AM

Comment x2 = Free Beer x2 ?

Posted by: Junior on December 7, 2007 6:16 AM

Hooray Beer!

Posted by: Andrew on December 7, 2007 7:07 AM

Wait which one's the cupcake?

Also, I think you passed up a valuable opportunity to pun with nut-themed food items.

Posted by: elizasmom on December 7, 2007 8:22 AM

Another suspicion could be, that global beer players are going to fake the election in favour of Obama AND Matthew giving free beer to the world. After all, there were some European postings here. I'm from Germany too. That said, it is probably better to sent some of our beer to Mr. Baldwin.

Posted by: LeGunn on December 7, 2007 8:34 AM

Reporting in just in case...

I'll do almost anything for free beer.

Posted by: Erin on December 7, 2007 8:43 AM

I live in Seattle, so if you're right, I'll be able to get that free beer post-haste. Of course, if Obama doesn't win (and the Republican party gets another candidate into the White House), you may have to buy me a beer anyway just as a coping mechanism. Oh dear. I really hope your predictions come to fruition.

Posted by: Alkelda on December 7, 2007 8:45 AM

I totally agree with you. I don't think I am living on planet Earth anymore.

Posted by: Claire on December 7, 2007 8:46 AM

This Obama kid definitely has game. Check this out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYCEnVmNkpE.

Posted by: daveb99 on December 7, 2007 8:48 AM

Hooray beer!

Posted by: AZ Dave on December 7, 2007 8:55 AM

From your lips to God's ears, DY.
Or, more accurately: From your keyboard to God's ears. I wish I could just leave the country in August. Thank God for Tivo -- I think I might be able to avoid horrible campaign crap.

FYI: "Audacity of Hope" by BO -- read the chapter on Opportunity. It's the best one. Sold me on him many many months ago.

Posted by: Imanitsud on December 7, 2007 9:17 AM


Make mine a Fat Tire.

Posted by: Jen on December 7, 2007 9:41 AM

I am hopping on the Obama/beer train. Well, actually I hopped on the Obama train at the convention keynote address way back when, but I'm claiming the beer now.

Posted by: tizzie on December 7, 2007 10:16 AM

Hi, I just got here. What's going on?

AHAHAHAHAH, j/k. I would order a beer, but one, I'm an alcoholic, and two, it's pretty obvious that Duncan Hunter is going to squeak one out in the end.

Posted by: Cody on December 7, 2007 10:20 AM

Mmmmmmmmmmmm. Beeeeeeeeer.

Make mine a Surly.


Posted by: HM_93 on December 7, 2007 12:40 PM

I've met him and talked to him, Obama is the real deal. He was my Senator in Illinois.
His level of tolerance will be his key to victory and will make him a great leader.
Plus, I'm up for a free beer.

Posted by: Kevin on December 7, 2007 1:16 PM

In 2004, we sat in the Roanoke (yes, in Seattle, where we have both tasty brew, hard cider AND martinis) watching the returns on election night. At first, we were giddy at the thought of Bush losing, and then it all went horribly wrong. Shock set in, and pretty much hasn't left since. I can't take another night, not to mention 4 years, like that. BRING ON THE BEER!! Let's hope we're raising our glasses in joy and not despair!

Posted by: flush puppy on December 7, 2007 1:30 PM

Awww, tradetricks appears to be officially dead. D - E - D, dead.

Beer me up, Scotty.

Posted by: Jeremy on December 7, 2007 1:41 PM

Just posting for the beer. But I do also enjoy your blog. Good reads!

Posted by: Princess Sparklepants on December 7, 2007 2:11 PM

I like Fat Tire. I also like Obama, so it's win win for me if you're Nostradamus alla the sudden.

Posted by: Aaron on December 7, 2007 2:37 PM

beer me.

Posted by: Rachel on December 7, 2007 3:15 PM

beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeer ak obama! for president!

Posted by: emily on December 7, 2007 3:55 PM

beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeer ak obama! for president!

Posted by: emily on December 7, 2007 3:56 PM

beer me. I hope you're saving up.... -L

Posted by: thisislarry on December 7, 2007 4:13 PM

Personally, I have a perfect cunning plan for November 2008... So cunning you could stick a tail on it and call it a weasel! As cunning as a fox who's just been appointed professor of cunning at Oxford!

You see.... I plan to either get involved in some horrible accident OR pick some optional surgery that requires a long recovery time.... and THUS unconscious in hospital during the entire time that the ballot is at my house and THEREFORE get out of having to personally wade through the cesspool and yet still be found not guilty of being a piss-poor participant in democracy!

It cannot Fail!

So - any suggestions for voluntary surgery that would have me loopy for a minimum of 2 weeks?

Oh and I am actually allergic to beer (yeah, that sucked in college, much) so I either offer my beer to the next person who posts from the pacific northwest, or you can send me a an orange Propel. damn things are addictive.

Posted by: Tracy on December 7, 2007 10:03 PM

I'm reminded of one of my favorite of many stories of my Dad. As a civilian attached to the Navy in Hawaii during WW II (remember Pearl Harbor today) he witnessed an election for union president at a huge defense plant. The candidates addressed the massed assemblage. The 1st candidate gave a lengthy but wonderful speech outlining his plans for improvement and was met with sparse applause. The 2nd candidate stepped to the podium and said, "If I'm elected... FREE BEER!" Which was met with thunderous applause and cheering. He was elected in a landslide. I asked my Dad if there was any free beer and he said, "Of course not."... And so it goes with the Presidential election. I don't think you'd get what you think you might. Doesn't Obama's health plan involve the Insurance Industry? Meet the new boss, the same as the old boss. In the words of the great late Adam Clayton Powell (D-Rep. NY): 'Don't rock the boat and we'll all share the gravy.' The Dems just spread the gravy a little bit wider than the Repubs. Large Louie

Posted by: Anonymous on December 7, 2007 10:05 PM

Just getting my beer chip in.

Posted by: Zack on December 7, 2007 10:05 PM

If Obama wins you're going to have to buy Oprah an ocean liner full of beer... but I'd settle for a Blackfoot IPA brewed over in Helena, MT. (Kicks ass on almost every IPA in the NW except possibly Fish Tale.)

As Chrissie Hynde might sing...

Oh way to go

(Yeah, I had to Google how the hell to spell her name.)

Posted by: Jim in Missoula! on December 7, 2007 10:05 PM

I'm hoping the Rs write-in Newt.

Here's to Obama! 292 or better.

Why is it that we let states like New Hampshire, Iowa, and Texas take first shot at the candidates? Is there something interesting that they represent? Bah! There's got to be a better way than smoky back rooms or oddball states.

@Tracy - better than the O.R., try the beach in Tahiti.

Posted by: Andy on December 7, 2007 10:18 PM

October 2008: beer-for-votes scandal rocks Obama campaign.

Posted by: Tim at Mooselessness on December 8, 2007 12:23 PM

Beer, beer, beer!

Also, I'm torn between Clinton and Obama. But, I'm Canadian, so I'm just hoping, whoever it is, that they don't invade us.

Posted by: Cory on December 8, 2007 1:25 PM

Sorry Matt,
I usually love your stuff, but I'm gonna have to break away form you on this. Not that I don't like Obama. He seems an interesting, intelligent, likable guy who's passionate. But I can't pull the lever for National Leader for anyone new to the game. He's a freshman senator for Pete's sake! What's he done? Any interesting new ideas? Any important legislation pushed through? Any world-leader level connections? Nope, none. Same reason I couldn't vote for Edwards in the last go-round, btw.
I'd love the free beer (and if you can see through it, it ain't beer,) but I'm gunna have to go with Biden.
Anyone else hear people say I'm throwing away a vote? Recent polls are showing Biden, Edwards, Clinton, Obama, and damn near anyone who's registered Democratic can beat the top Republican candidates. So no, not throwing away a vote, just putting in the lad of the guy with the most experience and who can best repair America's tarnished image.
But I still hope I get that beer.

Posted by: mindar on December 8, 2007 1:33 PM

I think you're right. I also find it interesting that the news media is so focused on meaningless national polls instead of state by state dynamics when obviously they have smart enough people to realize state by state dynamics. I'm no conspiracy theorist but...well okay I'm probably now a conspiracy theorist. Anyway, I don't think Clinton has a snowball's chance in a Vietnamese shrimp soup with extra cayenne so Obama has the nomination locked up. So as long as they count the votes honestly on January 20, 2009 we will inaugurate a man based on the content of his character.

Barack Attack! What do we say? Go 'bama! What do we say!? Go 'bama!!

Posted by: Arthur Delaney on December 8, 2007 3:26 PM

Sir, you will not get me to sell my vote for a beer, but I'll gladly drink one of yours if your guy wins! :)


Posted by: ZigZagMan on December 9, 2007 2:54 AM

Hooray beer! Count me in.

But I'm predicting it's going to be Huckabee - another likable outsider, but with executive experience and little taint from the current Washington establishment.

Southern governors are safe bets but there's always the possibility for a surprise scandal to throw it up for grabs. Fortunately for Huckabee the scandal bar for Arkansas governors is set pretty high.

And let me match your wager - if Huckabee wins, I owe you a beer. But I'm hoping you win.

Posted by: kgander on December 9, 2007 10:35 AM

and I'll buy you a schnapps if Edwards is his running mate.

Posted by: Kainenchen on December 9, 2007 4:31 PM

Beer?! Now I have a horse in this race!

As a special bonus, by November 2008 I'll actually be of legal drinking age. I'm beginning to plan my Bush party for January 2009.

Posted by: Lenny on December 9, 2007 4:54 PM

A beer give-away may be against the law, but I won't say anything if you won't.

Posted by: noonan on December 9, 2007 8:47 PM

I'll take this bet. I'm not a big fan of Obama, but hey, beer.

Posted by: John Wilson on December 10, 2007 1:30 AM

I just love that you're going to break your commenting record with the free beer thing. I'll be hopeful if Obama wins, but I think Clinton might be the better choice. Either one is survivable, of course, though I'll be voting for Kucinich in the primary.

And if you're at, for example, the Stranger's election watching night, I'll buy you a beer just for all the years of entertainment you've given me.

Posted by: Lythea on December 10, 2007 2:59 AM

Man, I hope you're right. I'll even go you one better: If Obama wins, I'll buy me two beers.

Posted by: Phill on December 10, 2007 3:27 AM

Kegger at Matthew's!

Posted by: juliloquy on December 10, 2007 6:20 AM

I don't drink, but I do love the idea of Obama for President... or Hil... I'll take either with a big smile on my face

Posted by: Tiffany on December 10, 2007 10:27 AM


Posted by: Sandi on December 10, 2007 12:05 PM

So will you be mailing us these beers, or did you just want us all to swing by your house?

Posted by: czelticgirl on December 10, 2007 1:04 PM

I sure hope you are right.

Posted by: Ben Edwards on December 10, 2007 1:16 PM

Obama's alright, but Kucinich is my favorite. I don't think I disagree with anything that little guy says. Seriously. Realistic universal health care? Awesome. That, and he's a vegan. That's just cool.

Posted by: Morgan on December 10, 2007 4:30 PM

The fun/annoying thing about being a moderate independent: I'm not really happy with anyone who's running. I might need that beer no matter what. (Can you make mine a St. Arnold's Pale Ale? kthxbai)

Posted by: Manders on December 10, 2007 5:14 PM

You buy the first round, I'll get the second.

Posted by: Meghann on December 10, 2007 9:18 PM

I pray for Obama, and the beer would be nice. Cheers from Quebec City (400 yeras old in 208).

Posted by: Mario Cantin on December 11, 2007 8:17 AM

Can we predict now what kind of beer you are going to hand out? I vote for Corona.

Posted by: kisalex on December 12, 2007 1:00 AM

He has my vote. As long as he has that sticker from the Oprah Candidate's Club, he has my vote.

Posted by: Rob Cockerham on December 14, 2007 8:25 AM

Your ploy to get the most ever non-spam comments on a blog is working! Although I wish more spam comments were "I want a beer, too!" and not "V!@GR*!!!1!!"

Posted by: Kyle G on December 18, 2007 6:33 PM

beer is good. free beer is better. i vote against corona. and recommend anything from the alaskan brewing company. particualrly the golden pale.

Posted by: andy on December 22, 2007 1:18 PM


Posted by: Mark on December 28, 2007 5:24 AM

I don't know who this Obama guy is, but I like beer!

Posted by: wolfe on January 3, 2008 5:35 PM